BUYING HONG FOK IS LIKE BUYING A PROPERTY WHICH WAS ONCE WORTH 1.86MILLION AT THE PEAK OF THE CYCLE AND NOW HAS CRUSHED TO $160,000. WHEN IT WAS AT 1.86MILLION I WAS TELLING MYSELF, IF ONLY...................... A WAR, ANOTHER SARS, A FINANCIAL CRISIS COULD CRUSH THIS BABY SO THAT I CAN COME IN A BUY

REMEMBER, BAD MARKETS DON'T LAST FOREVER, HONG FOK HIGHEST TRADED PRICE AT THE PEAK WAS $1.86. TODAY'S CLOSING PRICE IS 17CENTS, THE NAV VALUE CURRENTLY $1.38. CHEAP AT CURRENT PRICE OR EXPANSIVE????????? FOR ME IT IS darn GOOD PRICE TO BUY AND HOLD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

ANOTHER REASON WHY I SAY HONG FOK IS A STEAL AT CURRENT PRICE, AMONG ALL THE LISTED PROPERTY COUNTERS HONG FOK HAS THE BIGGEST DISCOUNT TO ITS NAV OF $1.37CENTS. ABOUT 85%. YOU GO AND DO YOUR OWN MATH. GUOCOLAND NAV 2.50 SHARE PRICE $1.15, KEPLAND NAV $3.26 SHARE PRICE $2.17, HO BEE NAV $1.164 SHARE PRICE 40.5CENTS, CAPITAL LAND $3.81 SHARE PRICE $3.24, WING TAI $2.09 SHARE PRICE 76CENTS, WHEELOCK PROP. NAV $1.72 SHARE PRICE 95CENTS. SC GLOBAL NAV 97CENTS SHARE PRICE 61CENTS. THE RANGE IS BETWEEN 14%-65%. SO THINK ABOUT IT, WHY HONG FOK IS NOT SUNKIST ORANGE AT 8CENTS

I'M STILL QUEUING TO BUY HONG FOK 20CENTS, I CONSIDER HONG FOK AT THIS PRICE, IS A STEAL, RECENTLY, IF YOU CAN REMEMBER YTL CORPORATION BUYING INTO MMP REITS AT 82CENTS, ITS NAV VALUE IS $1.61 CENTS, THAT'S ABOUT 50% BELOW THE PRICE OF ITS NAV. NOW I'M BUYING HONG FOK AT 85% BELOW ITS NAV OF $1.37. HOW, GOOD OR NOT? YOU DECIDE. HONG FOK, LIKE I SAID OWNS THE CONCOURSE, I DON'T KNOW HOW MUCH THEY PAY FOR THIS PIECE OF LAND. MUST BE DIRT CHEAP AND BESIDES THE CONCOURSE, THEY ALSO OWN THE INTERNATIONAL BUILDING IN ORCHARD ROAD. WHICH IS FREEHOLD. AND AT WHAT PRICE DID THEY PAY FOR THIS LAND? YES, DIRT CHEAP AGAIN

HONG FOK AT 23CENTS

SYNEAR HAS GONE UP FROM $0.11 LOW TO $0.25. NOW ENTER SYNEAR AT $0.25 IS IT TOO LATE?

MY BUYING PRICE FOR SYNEAR FOOD WAS A LOW 14CENTS AND SINOMEM 6.5CENTS,

MY STRATEGY NOW WOULD BE TO IDENTIFY THOSE COMPANYS THAT HAVE LOTS OF CASH, STILL MAKING MONEY, GOOD MANAGEMENT, GOOD DIVIDENDS. AND ONCE BUYING IT, I'M PREPARE TO HOLD FOR 5 YEARS MINIMUM, AND OF COURSE, WITH MORE FUND TO AVE. DOWN, SHOULD THEY FALL LOWER

I'VE SEEN IT IN 1973-75, 1986, 1997-99, AND 2003

THAT DAY THE CLOSING PRICE FOR COSCO $3.37, YANGZIJIANG 97CENTS CELESTIAL 85CENTS, FIRST RESOURCES 1.20, GOLDEN AGRI-RESOURCES 1.02 AND AUSGROUP 87.5CENTS JUST TO NAME A FEW

and if i miss the boat, i will miss it with some cash on hand

Don't be greedy. If you are fully loaded when the market collapses, you are finished.

dont sit on profits..got profit take and RUNFAST

TO FOCUS ON FUNDAMENTALS IS IMPORTANT BUT THE TREND OF THE MARKET IS EQUALLY IMPORTANT, WHEN IT IS DOWN TREND FUNDAMENTALS GOOD ALSO NO USE. TIMING IS VERY IMPORTANT.

The dominos are falling and nobody can stop them. This debt based economy will not survive; the debt will be cleared either by default or by inflation. The chance of the later are looking pretty slim right about now.

The stairwell leading up to the roof of the former Sokha Lay hotel near Central Market is pitch black in the middle of the day and full of rats, rubbish and dirty needles. Two of Phnom Penh's rooftop residents look out over the view of the Central Market and the Sorya Center

Can it be less than $400psf wihen the breakeven cost of construction these days exceeding $350psf for most projects & $500psf for some projects?

I do not call this affordable as so many others have and are now losing thier homes. Be careful when a real estate person or bank even GOV starts talking about affordability what they are really\currently saying is enslavement.

$120 billion in aid for emerging markets, including the central banks of Brazil, Mexico, South Korea and Singapore

Cash is going to be king again, and those who have it will survive the best. Get in cash and prepare for the day when you can use your cash to pick the cherries off the tree

People used to boast about hot stocks they owned. Now they crow about how much of their money is in cash. Those holding cash have been richly rewarded with no losses and opportunities to buy assets (condos and equities) at huge discounts.
As prices continue to decline, those that moved too quickly to buy at the bottom are seen as fools. Consider the massive losses of the sovereign wealth funds, Bank of America
12/05/2008BAC 14.17, -0.17, -1.2%) and Countrywide, and even Warren Buffett's latest foray into General Electric GE 17.14, -0.41, -2.3%) and Goldman Sachs
GS 67.27, -0.26, -0.4%) . Investors, convinced that prices will continue to decline, sit with their liquid resources on the sidelines. As that investment demand takes a holiday, prices will decline further

The policy agenda currently in vogue is to maintain the leverage and the asset prices by shifting all that debt from the private sector to the public. Why are we doing this? Because the near-term political heat from a deep recession and re-pricing of assets is more than any of our leaders can handle. Eventually that massive intervention and concomitant increase in the money supply will come with a hefty price tag

There appears to be a consensus that the economy was over-levered from households to corporations to government-sponsored entities. Leverage as measured by total debt to GDP grew from 140% 30 years ago to over 220% today. If that defines the problem then the solution should be a de-leveraging over the next thirty years. That de-leveraging will cause prices to fall dramatically as the credit supply shrinks, money supply falls and velocity slows.

Steung Manchey Phnom Penh municipal landfill

Tune Hotel owned by Air Asia. I booked a a room using the Tune Hotel website for $A7.60 a night in a single room

Hello!For the first half of this year, there were a record 34,800 new PRs and 9,600 new citizens, compared to 28,500 and 7,300 for the same period last year

the wait could be at least another nine months — if prices do come down at all — no thanks to the slew of foreigners and private property downgraders eyeing the HDB rental and resale markets respectively, which indirectly pushes up the prices of new HDB flats.

when globally car manufacturers are losing money and some going bankrupt, why the car dealers in Singapore still so fat ?

After HDB had a problem with a huge surplus of flats, they over-compensated and resulted in insufficient flats. This probably pushed many to buy resale flats, causing skyrocketing prices.

The fallout has been felt most profoundly in the local property market where soaring prices last year attracted hordes of speculators snapping up condos in the hope of making a quick profit. This sudden reversal has prompted analysts to raise concerns over possible systemic risks posed to banks from the downward spiral in property prices, given their big exposure to real estate loans. Their biggest worry is focused on the record 14,811 private properties sold by developers to homebuyers last year. Many of these flats were sold under a 'deferred payment scheme', introduced 10 years ago during the Asian financial crisis to help developers offload unsold properties and which was scrapped only in October last year. This scheme enabled a homebuyer to pay only the stamp duty and 10 per cent of the purchase price upfront. The rest is paid only when the flat is given its temporary occupation licence (TOP

when currency is low and hotel rates dirt cheap

Stylistic - the miracle

The trouble with this crisis is that it's a long period of "constipation", unlike the Asian financial crisis which flushed the system like a "diahorrea

Good hedges should lose little value over time. Cars and eggs lose value over time. Land, silver and wine do not.

A regional sales director at an American technology firm has also been asked to go because of cost-cutting. The 34-year-old and his wife plan to spend the next few months backpacking before returning to the US

DBS $5 is best buy! I bought during SARS at $8.90... that was already considered nearly all time low

demand for three- and four-room flats will not wane in the slowing economy, but 'there may be more cautious sentiments where five-room flats are concerned'

they could easily opt for a resale flat where they would not have to wait to move in, and can enjoy grants of up to $70,000. According to HDB data, only 262 applications were received on the first day of application. Yet, yesterday's results mean less than 40 per cent of applicants will get a flat. 'Given these results, we can expect to see the HDB resale market continue to do well for the whole year with overall 14 per cent growth,'

Going bankrupt boils down to bad money management, on the part of the trader, and not whether trading the product, whether stocks, forex, or futures is good, or not

3'C' strategy - convince, confuse, condemn

E200 KOMPRESSOR ESTATE (A)
1796
184
230
232
9.4
203,888

Look at US major indices, like DJ, epicentre of financial crisis, but still down less than Asia's indices, something wrong ? JPM, familiar stock I had before, was $1x in 2003, now bigger impact still at $2x today ? US stocks still got more downside IMO.

US front-month crude oil fell US$4.00 to settle at US$49.62 a barrel, the lowest settlement since May 23, 2005

Warren Buffett (Berkshire Hathaway): -43%Ken Hebner (CMG Focus Fund) -56%Harry Lange (Fidelity Magellan): -59%Bill Miller (Legg Mason Value Trust) -50%Ken Griffin (Citadel): -44%Carl Icahn (Icahn Enterprises): -81%T. Boone Pickens: Down $2 billion since JulyKirk Kerkorian: Down $693 million on his Ford shares alone

In Q3 2008, a total of 4,287 caveats were lodged for private homes (including ECs), covering both primary and secondary markets - 9 per cent higher than the 3,934 caveats lodged in the preceding quarter

Saw AUDUSD drop from 0.6350 to 0.6100 within 4 hours.NZDUSD also drop from 0.5400 to 0.5250.AUD, NZD, KRW & IDR all are very bearish; JPY is super Bull.

The situation now make me think of Asian Currency Crisis........everybody don't know where the bottom is.......Cash is the only king..... I remembered the life saver then was that the orders and bookings from the U.S. was still very strong, that kind of off-set the slow down in Asia. But today, I don't know who is our life saver......when will it come...... My guess is that the only thing to save us is our own body immunse system......., which is ging to take a while to wake up and gather enough power to fight off the disease....... it's scary

Federal Reserve sees recession to at least mid-2009

In Jan 08 USDKRW is 950; today it is 1450. Feel like currency crisis all over again.Korea will go broke at that rate................SGD$ have gain 50% against Korean Won too................ should go Korea for a holiday

Volume was heavy on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), where about 2.23 billion shares changed hands, above last year's estimated daily average of 1.90 billion, while on the Nasdaq, about 3.15 billion shares traded, well above last year's daily average of 2.17 billion

The Dow Jones industrial average plunged 444.99 points, or 5.56 per cent, to 7,552.29. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index lost 54.14 points, or 6.71 per cent, to 752.44. The Nasdaq Composite Index slid 70.30 points, or 5.07 per cent, to 1,316.12.

The S&P 500 is now more than 52 per cent below its October 2007 record high, making the current bear market the second biggest on record. The current decline is exceeded only by the 83 per cent drop between 1930 and 1932, according to the Stock Trader's Almanac 750 s&p

The cost of credit-default swaps (CDS), or insurance against default, on Berkshire's debt has nearly tripled in two months and is wider than CDSs on many other insurance and financial firms, Bloomberg reports.

The S&P 500, widely considered the broadest snapshot of corporate America, slipped 52.54 points, or 6.12 percent, to 806.58; and the Dow gave up 427.47 points, or 5.07 percent, to 7,997.28. Both closed at their lowest levels since March 2003, and are rapidly approaching the lows of the 2000 to 2002 bear market

One may want to consider bluechip stocks who's dividends are high-yield compared to their current stock prices. In addition to relatively high dividend yields, potential for capital gains over a 5+ year horizon are probably far superior since their prices are already halved, unlike property (whose prices have yet to reflect economic realities). Also the timeline to capital gains in stocks when the economy recovers will probably be faster than property who's price changes lag behind stocks. Having said that, stock prices may still have more to fall, so waiting may also be good. However, even if you buy now, risk is relatively low because prices have already fallen drastically

If you look at HDB, now is at the peak price & climbing to higher peak this quarter, forecast to up another 4% this quarter

When will they bottom? The asking prices by developers and subsales sellers are now totally out of whack with economic realities, but I believe the time for an accelerated loss in confidence will come in the next 12 months when jobs losses, bonuses and salaries and 'in-transience' of the recession truly hit home in Singapore. I think 2009 will be the year of job losses, but 2010 will be the time to start looking when a perfect storm of TOP completions clashes with a full-bloom recession. It may also be that the bottom won't occur till 2011 if this recession turns out to be a multi-year correction? Of course I don't know for sure when the bottom will be. But I do know that there is now no hurry. This is no longer Oct 2007 when waiting could still wind up with us paying more. Now, we can safely take our time to see how deep this recessionh bites.

Mr Han also did not rule out that demand for HDB flats could be sustained by downgraders from the private residential market
In Q3 2008, HDB's resale price index rose 4.2 per cent, and 12.4 per cent in the first nine months of 2008
Four-room flats at Punggol Arcadia are priced at between $269,000 and $327,000

PM Lee: Addressing a PAP party conference yesterday, he said 'we are already in recession and we expect a U-shaped recovery with a fat U. At the same time, we must be ready for more surprises

This spells doom for Singapore private property market, most people will go for HDB be it for newly weds or down grading, it's a safer choice

Nordine has made his own fortune not only by selling homes but also by investing shrewdly. In the 1980s, he bought about 20 properties, most of them single-family homes in Torrance. He sold them off in 1990 and '91 when he anticipated a bust was coming. He dived back into the market in the mid-1990s -- this time apartments in Santa Monica -- and sold off most of them in 2005.

property price of a country with sound economy will rise in tandem with its economic growth is pretty much common sense .. MM Lee said property price will rise in the long run .. he didn't say it'll surge from where it is now, in fact he implies that it'll crash in the short term .. and he's trying reassure ppl that after the crash, it'll again rise in the long run. MM Lee mentioned of our reserve to see us through this crisis is chilling. He has said NO to touching the reserve in past recessions...global rate cut is not going to save spore overvalued-property price because banks are tight with their lendings because of a credibility crisis, not just a credit crisis .. China stimulus is to boost its domestic economy ... if it can save itself is already very good .. don't depend on china to save our economy, much less our property...Spore stimulus package is likely for public spendings on long-term infrastructure as we have seen in the past .. and as tharman mentioned, to help business's cash flow .. we've never seen a recession this bad that cash flow of business is severely impaired that it needs to be in our budget .. it's frightening .. the more the govt is doing way more than past recessions, the more it signals the severity of this recession. BEWARE!

Wheelock, SC Global, Keppel Land, Ho Bee and Wingtai most affected on default

- The official private home price index slipped 2.4 per cent cent in the third quarter compared with the preceding quarter, according to latest data by Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) on Friday. Rentals of private residential properties decreased by 0.9 per cent in the third quarter of this year 'Prices of private residential, office, and shop properties decreased by 2.4 per cent, 3.9 per cent and 0.3 per cent respectively in the Q3 2008 while the prices of industrial properties increased slightly by 0.9 per cent in the same period,' URA said. 'Rentals of private residential, office and shop properties decreased by 0.9 per cent, 0.8 per cent, and 0.6 per cent respectively in the 3rd Quarter 2008, while the rentals for industrial properties increased slightly by 0.1 per cent in the same period,' URA said. In the public housing segment, Housing & Development Board's resale flat price index rose 4.2 per cent in Q3 over the preceding quarter, lower than the 4.5 per cent quarter-on-quarter gain seen in Q2. The total number of HDB resale applications registered rose by 4.5 per cent, from 7,763 cases in Q2 to 8,112 cases in Q3. The median Cash-Over-Valuation (COV) amount of all resale transactions in Q3 was $19,000 (US$12,646) - slightly lower than the $20,000 COV in Q2. Cases requiring COV constituted 89 per cent of all resale transactions in Q3, with 11 per cent of resale transactions conducted at or below valuation. Overall median sublet rents for HDB flats rose slightly in Q3. However, subletting transactions fell about 4 per cent from about 4,120 cases in Q2 to about 3,960 cases in Q3. The total number of HDB flats approved for subletting rose to about 21,400 units, compared to about 20,200 units in Q2

Just read in today Straits Times "Surge in layoffs expected" and numbers likely to jump beyond the peak suffered during the 1998 Asian financial crisis. About 30,000 jobs were lost then. This spells doom for Singapore private property market, most people will go for HDB be it for newly weds or down grading, it's a safer choice

url]//en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_daily_changes_in_the_Dow_Jones_Industrial_Average[/Url] Sixteen of the twenty biggest percentage daily rises came between 1929 and 1933. The world economy wasn't doing startlingly well at the time. Maybe a big daily rise isn't necessarily a good sign

SC Global’s shares fell one cent to close at 59 cents yesterday. The stock has lost 75.6 per cent this year

Soilbuild shares were last traded at 74 cents each

As you can from the data above, the price plunges by more than 10% in a year only in 1997 and 1998during the Asian Financial Crisis. You must remember then that there was also a huge over-supply of new HDB then of which some still remain unsold today. Given that the government is trying not to over-supply with its BTO, rather than just build without order in the 90s, I personally think it's unlikely for the same sort of over-supply to happen this time round. In addition, the HDB rental demand is very strong too. In the 90s, HDB owners do not have the option of leasing their flats.The peak price was in 1996, 4Q (PPI=136.9). The current PPI is 131.7, still below the peak. In fact, my judgement says prices for resale HDB are very unlikely to fall like in 1997-98 even if we should go into a recession. My forecast for price fall is largely for private property where there is an accumulation of unsold units and where ROI is already low and rental yield is likely to see more downside

The cause of the US dollar's strength in recent weeks has been partly to do with the repatriation of investment funds from overseas, and this process could accelerate now as a fresh credit crunch threatens, in spite of injections of financial liquidity by the US Federal Reserve, Mr Chung commented. 'This will lead to a further correction in asset markets' in Asia and elsewhere, he suggested

When housing first began to go down, at first people didn’t believe it. They’d learned that “property always goes up,” or that “you can’t go wrong with real estate.” Naturally, they took the first signs of a downturn as a buying opportunity. Later, they realized that it was a selling opportunity – the last chance to get out before the roof collapsed

CapitaCommercial Trust, an office landlord partly owned by CapitaLand, fell as much as 13 percent to S$1.02 after Goldman cut its share-price estimate by 39 percent. K-REIT Asia, the property trust partly owned by Keppel Land Ltd., fell as much as 4.9 percent to 77 Singapore cents. The brokerage cut its rating on the shares to ``neutral'' from ``buy,'' and slashed its share-price target by 49 percent.

, the nation's largest developer, fell as much as 12 percent to S$2.53 and traded at S$2.62 as of 9:20 a.m., taking its 2008 drop to 58 percent. Keppel Land Ltd., the third biggest, lost as much as 10 percent to S$1.80. Goldman cut its share-price estimates for the companies by 37 percent and 46 percent, respectively

i see oil price falling to $70 plus .. that's year's price .. people need oil to warm their winters, drive their cars .. so why the drop in oil price when oil is so much needed ??? ... cos we are heading for a deep recession .. cos buinesses are closing down .. cos people are losing their jobs ..cos people now have hardly enough to eat .. cos banks won't lend them any more money ... cos we are all going into a deep recession .. wait till we get out of this recession, then we can talk about jim roger's super-inflation this is what you should be looking at in the near future: spore property crashing liao..

Chartered Semiconductor will retrench 600 employees IM Flash will retrench 60 % of their workforce. As for my company, if the next 6 month orders remain low, salary will be cut by 15% top management 20 %, if market never improve layoff will start

This is the carnage of the global financial crisis so far. Keep in mind that these companies are not exactly emerging small companies but rather blue chips.These losses include:
• A I G -Then: $178.8 billion… Now: $5.46 billion. Down 96.95%• Bank of America -Then: $236.5 billion… Now: $123.4 billion. Down: 47.82%• Citigroup -Then: $236.7 billion… Now: $76.34 billion. Down 67.75%• Merrill Lynch - Then: $63.9 billion… Now: $30.2 billion. Down 52.74%• Fannie Mae - Then: $64.8 billion… Now: $0.45 billion. Down 99.3%• Morgan Stanley - Then: $73.1 billion… Now: $41.1 billion. Down 43.78%• Wachovia - Then: $98.3 billion… Now: $19.44 billion. Down 80.22%• JP Morgan Chase - Then: $161 billion… Now: $130.2 billion. Down 19.13%• Capital One Financial - Then: $29.9 billion… Now: $16.9 billion. Down 43.48%• Washington Mutual - Then: $31.1 billion… Now: $3.64 billion. Down 88.3%• Lehman Bros. - Then: $34.4 billion… Now: $0.80 billion. Down 97.6%• Goldman Sachs - Then: 97.7 billion… Now: $40.6 billion. Down 58.7%• Wells Fargo - Then: $124.1 billion… Now: $111.25 billion. Down 10.35%• National City - Then: $16.4 billion… Now: $2.8 billion. Down 83%• Fifth Third Bancorp - Then: $18.8 billion… Now: $7.9 billion. Down 57.6%• American Express - Then: $74.8 billion… Now: $37.5 billion. Down 49.87%• Freddie Mac - Then: $41.5 billion… Now: $0.16 billion. Down 58.7%• Suntrust Banks - Then: $27 billion… Now: $16.07 billion. Down 58.7%• BB&T - Then: $23.2 billion… Now: $18.4 billion. Down 20.69%• Marshall & Ilsley - Then: $11.6 billion… Now: $4.48 billion. Down 61.3%• Keycorp - Then: $13.2 billion… Now: $5.68 billion. Down 56.97%• Legg Mason— Then: $11.4 billion…Now: $4.96 billion. Down 56.49%• Comerica— Then: $8.3 billion…Now: $4.74 billion. Down 42.89%• Countrywide Financial: Then: $11.1 billion…Now: $0.00 billion. Down 100%• Bear Stearns— Then: $14.8 billion…Now: $ 0.00 billion. Down 100%
Together these 25 companies alone have lost investors a total of $992,690,000,000 over the last 12 months… or nearly 1 trillion dollars.
And they say USA is the Land of Opportunities.

BREAKING NEWS - September 7, 2008 Penthouse at Sail @ Marina Bay was transacted at record price for a cool SGD15.426 million or $2,650 psf last month.

Of course, he won't be wrong. We have been transforming our manufacturing dependent economy into a full-fledge of service economy hub. This will make Singapore a distinctive high value-added economy which will not only ride over the global economy turmoil but also draw more foreign investments from all over the world which is now most hunger for growth. Rest assured my friends, once he has promised a golden era, he will deliver. We are on the very right track now.

he has promised a golden era, he will deliver

In after-hours trading Fannie Mae's shares plunged $1.54, or 22 percent, to $5.50. Freddie Mac's shares fell $1.06, or almost 21 percent, to $4.04. Common stock in the companies will be worth little to nothing after the government's actions.

During the 1995 -1998 period, the same scenerio arise. Many people cant get the HDB flat. There was the ballot system and it is just like "ti-kam", 1 out of 8 can get to buy. Due to this flocked system, many people, including those who are not so keen buyer also join the Q, paying $10 as a ballot fee, when they get balloted, then they decide whether to buy or not. At that time, similar to now, many people were worried that they can get their flat, rushing in to buy. Govt see good demand, built even more flats, thus causing the mkt to change from over demand to over supply. Many were convinced that HDB prices will not fall, at that time, it has never fallen before. There were influx of hongkongers, indoesian, etc . then when the mkt adjusted itself with supplies from govt and developers, the price collapse

Most of the foreigner here are on work permit (year 2004, we have 620k work permit holder compared to 72K employment pass holder)--> mean with salary less than 2K. You want them to buy your insane pricing house

Property will continue to go up, but with our determined and capable Ministers, we will be able to still provide affordable and conveniently located apartments and HDBs in the suburbs. Orchard road and Marina South will be out of reach for most locals who aren't already vested there today

Who are these foreigners? They are the fund managers and support staff taking care of the extra $16 billion that flowed into our country this year to date. To a smaller but increasingly important effect, esp in the comming months, is the enbloc sales which reduces supply and increases demand

On the influx of foreigners into spore, If the costs go too high and the property prices rising too fast, many will turn away. Not only that, many sporean will consider migrating to oversea, the rich ones to US, Aus, NZ and the not so rich ones can migrate to Malaysia, Thailand etc..Why not, in fact, I am considering to sell off my Condo, at 1.3m, take my CPF and migrate to NZ. Buy a house for 300k, a car for 80k, Place 1m in NZD FD at 7.5% and receive a month interest of $6k. look for a carefree job that pays $2-3k, I will be living happily

Clementi
321
01 to 05
92.00
1978
$415,000.00
Oct 2008
Clementi
326
11 to 15
92.00
1978
$430,000.00
Aug 2008
Clementi
347
06 to 10
92.00
1979
$388,000.00
Sep 2008

not forgetting that in the 90s, Cat B COE shot past $100k, and many ah-soh and ah-pek were dabbling in the stock market

today's frenzy is nowhere like that in the mid 90s. To me, the main cause of today's boom is the massive rate of enbloc dislocation over a very short period of time, something we didn't have in the mid-90s. The IR factor is puny compared to the other forces at play in the mid-90s. Yes, there may be more enbloc-induced wealth this time, but the appetite for speculation was stronger last time. Once the enbloc pace slows down, I think we may not see any huge upside anymore now that we have largely surpassed the 90s' peak.

October 8th, 2008 1437 GMT
AIG is in better health than most of us as you can see that we are not able to have a retreat that AIG were enjoying not so long ago. Something is definitely wrong with the whole reaction to the current crisis and are we seeing the forest for the tree? by elberty chanty in http://business.blogs.cnn.com/2008/10/08/markets-face-months-of-painful-surgery/#comments
compare with October 02, 2008 in Knowledge@Wharton
That was the beginning of the housing price cycle, housing prices going up. So far, so good. You keep going and say okay, now what happened and how far did it go? And we all know it went a very long time. There were a couple of things that were really important, though, that got everybody sort of out of kilter. Usually when these bubbles happen, it's almost always because of the fact that you miss the forest for the trees. And the way this cycle- People missed the forest for the trees. They relied on the rating agencies, the paper coming off was triple-A. Triple-A paper. Think about that. If you're a risk manager and you say, "This is a triple-A piece of paper." And they stress it. How bad can it be? I'm not so sure
too many would say it could go to zero. I can understand it can go down, but there are not too many people in any risk management area that's going to say it's going to go down to zero. So that was the first thing. The second thing that everybody relied on was while this securitization. And this paper was made to satisfy the fixed income demand out there, this paper was distributed wildly. The risk was distributed-- so back a year ago, in July, when all this started, people were pretty relaxed about it. They said, "You know what? This risk, I know there's risk, but it's fully distributed. Each one of us own $3.50 of this, so what's the big deal? We can take the losses, move on."
The other major surprise was that 15 to 20 large financial institutions owned basically all the risk. Now, you know. So the reason why we're here today is, in many ways, the fact that a large group of people missed the forest for the trees. It's not that they weren't managing risk correctly. They were. But how do you think about risk in a triple-A bond? It's very hard to figure out what that is. It's not that they weren't thinking, "Well, you know, I want to make sure these things are priced correctly." They were. But they assumed everything was fully distributed. You make very different assumptions if you thought 15 people owned all the risk. And the net result of all of that is that through everything that happened, the real shock to the financial system was that the banking industry, as a result, did not have enough capital to cover the losses that were coming through.
And the result of that is what you're seeing in the markets today. A lack of lending by banks. It is a mad fervor to say, if I am too overleveraged as a bank, how do I sell assets to de-lever and in that cycle, what happens is that you get to the kind of strains and stresses that occurred over the last couple of weeks, where people say, "Well, you know, if these financial institutions have taken losses and they have to de-lever, I am not so sure I want to own their stock or their bonds. I don't know what the risk profile is." And it creates a little bit of panic.
So that's what happened. Now it was important for me to share that with you. I can do this in sound bites, by the way, very well as well. But you are all students of finance and I wanted you to sort of understand, sort of piece by piece, what came together. I don't know if you're ever going to stop this "forest for trees" problem and I'm not so sure that's an objective, ever. No risk means no business. So the reality is that it's not about removing the risk of having these kind of things happen; it's about trying to find some balance and optimizing and finding a financial system architecture that can help you deal with these things so you don't get to the kind of stages we got to. One thing we all have to keep in mind is that the architecture, the regulatory architecture of the U.S. was set in the first 30 years of the last century and there were changes to it, but not enough. ... Now the principles haven't changed but the technology has changed a lot, and so a big part of what we have to do is re-do the regulatory architecture of the U.S. financial market. And when you think about that, it's going to have to be as comprehensive as it was, following the '20s of the last century and what happened in the '30s -- '33 Act, '34 Act, '35 Act and on and on and on. That's [what] we're headed towards. http://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article.cfm?articleid=2068

In 1998, interest rates went up as high as 9%...I remembered I myself having to pay such high loans due to the severe currency crisis hitting Asian economies

SC Global’s shares fell one cent to close at 59 cents yesterday. The stock has lost 75.6 per cent this year

The only saving grace this time round I'd say is the HDB market and because real demand is still strong. Given that more than 80% of the ppl live in HDB which price will remain stable, the impact of a private property crash on the economy will be manageable and in fact, desirable for Spore's long term competitiveness

THE higher-end of the public housing market is showing its first signs of cooling, with the Housing Board's latest condo-style flats receiving a lacklustre response. With only one day left to the closing of applications, Natura Loft at Bishan has drawn about 600 applications for 480 flats, its developer told The Straits Times yesterday. This is in stark contrast to the previous three projects built under HDB's design, build and sell scheme (DBSS), which attracted overwhelming demand. The first project, Premiere @ Tampines, was a hit, with 6,000 applications for 616 homes; City View @ Boon Keng had 3,500 buyers vying for 714 flats while the third project, Park Central at Ang Mo Kio, drew 2,300 bids for 578 units

Smaller developers singing "We got to Move it Move it...We got to Move it Move it..".

Only, this time it could be a lot worse as volume and bargain hunters may have used up some of their cash already over the last few weeks bargain hunting. 7,600 for the Dow looks more likely than 9,000 for now.But like I said on the first line, its about 75% over, best to do nothing, best to give up the first 10%-20% in a bottoming rally rather than trading into a volatile market with a strong downside bias. Keep at least 70% cash

have never studied nor witnessed any recession/meltdown like this in my career nor in financial history books ... this may not be a double/triple dip bottom ... this one may RE-WRITE the history books I fear ... we may be seeing history in the making ... a century later the historians will refer to the Meltdown of 2008-9 with fear & loathing BUT we today have an opportunity of a lifetime , if we are smart AND lucky .... to make historical profits from this vicious cycle IF we are sitting on hoards of hard cold cash to invest at or near the true bottom

Las Vegas Sands mkt cap ($4.9bn) < 50% of its debt ($10 bn).

General Motors got sell down 13% and the market cap is at 1929 level. No joke

capitaland also very cheap.... My good friend still kena stuck with $7 for capitaland.... Now only $2.51..... Thinking.....thinking......thinking....But when i think of Farrer court purchase by them

Just saw Prudential shares price drop 35% a few minutes ago. Prices drop from $88 to just $25.51 since early September 2008. It is quite a ride.

On the other hand, my friends sold off their properties last year and later on in 07/08 started buying up equities coz they thought prices were "bargain-basement"!! Now of course they wonder whether they would have been better off holding their properties as at least there was still rental to count on!!

just last 2 weeks, people around me talk abt 1800 as worst case. now 1800 is probably round the corner in 2 weeks time max. expectation is for it to trend to 1500 as worst case. but things are moving down so fast ... even 1300 is now a real possibility. it could be as early as mar 09 with 1500 and 1300 by may 09. sad to say all our property prices will fall back to the asian financial crisis level. i hate to say this but i am mentally prepared to see the big depreciation on my property values. only saving grace is that i bought freehod district 9 at $620 to $800

Last few days.... I have been going thru the company profiles of property counters and realised that there really is a too much projects half sold, un-sold or waiting to be launched.... Super Glut!Sorry to say.... But BB72 is right.... How long can the developers hold? How much losses can they endure.... Being highly geared in a recession is very dangerous. Using common sense will tell that recession loses jobs, recession loses businesses, recession brings down valuations. Property market Trend for 2009 is definately down. My banker and some agents tell me the same thing, which is valuation is going down and down. Apparently The Esta in katong has already hit 800psf

WINDOWS -- What you jump out of when you're the sucker whobought Yahoo @ $240 per share

Even if the stock market dives, there is always a good chance of rebound no matter where is the basement. BUT when the financial sector collapses, it's worse than a stock market drop. It is no longer a liquidity issue but one of solvency and confidence. Take away these 2 factors, all other industries which depend on finance will sink.Banks and other financial entities will need the government to bail them out, to recapitalise or to guarantee customer deposits. If all these are gone, then you enter a severe recession or depression which ever way you call it.Jobs will be lost but those associated with the financial sector will be the hardest hit as in the case of Singapore (or elsewhere). Take away base salary, take away bonuses and if one is committed to expensive and big-dollar assets ($1,500/sq ft real estate, Sentosa Cove, Keppel Marina uachts, Porsches, Audis, Vacheron Constantin, Dempsey Hill), u r in for a hard time. Those high salaried employees (>$250K/year and above) who finance their purchases with loans will be hardest hit

That was the beginning of the housing price cycle, housing prices going up. So far, so good. You keep going and say okay, now what happened and how far did it go? And we all know it went a very long time. There were a couple of things that were really important, though, that got everybody sort of out of kilter. Usually when these bubbles happen, it's almost always because of the fact that you miss the forest for the trees. And the way this cycle- People missed the forest for the trees. They relied on the rating agencies, the paper coming off was triple-A. Triple-A paper. Think about that. If you're a risk manager and you say, "This is a triple-A piece of paper." And they stress it. How bad can it be? I'm not so sure

in the U.S., we have a lot of imbalances. Many of those are not new, but some of them are. When we think about imbalances, there's a housing imbalance. There's just too much housing compared to the demand, and it's not clear exactly when and how the housing market [will be] cleared, where the prices stop. There is a consumption/saving imbalance. Everybody thought they were saving because their housing prices were going up. Well, they no longer are. And the U.S. consumer has to start saving at some point. When you look at the financial system around the world, [it became] overloaded over a period of time. They have to figure out how to de-lever themselves. And the last point, which I think is also important, there's a lot of growth elsewhere in the world and the world is trying to figure out how to grow without causing inflation. Each of these four is very important rebalancing cycles that we're going to have to get right as a country.

Singapore has no interest rate policy, only FX policy. Interbank interest rates only tell part of the story because: i) banks prefer to get (much cheaper) funding from depositors, not from each other, ii) if banks decide to tighten lending, they don't just raise lending rates, they also stop lending to weaker borrowers. Watch overnight and term deposit rates and promotions to get an idea of liquidity and funding requirements of banks

Simple idea work best. Buy those counters which correct the most first. Property counter will be next to reach their lowest possible level. Follow by those solid blue chip like Singtel.3 Jardine counters 30% correction to new low will indicate a bottom in STI. I am waiting.Buy one at a time. Buy penny stock last. It is all just a game. Your result will show up in your bank account

THE slightly smaller increase of 4.2 per cent in resale prices between July and last month, when compared to the second quarter’s 4.5 per cent, may be a sign that HDB resale prices have begun to moderate.But overall, analysts expect the market to continue to post growth next year, if at a slower pace. A sign that demand for flats could be easing up somewhat. The housing board has deferred the launch of a Design, Building and Sell Scheme (DBSS) site in Bedok. It had, last November, announced plans to release three such sites in the first half — so far, tenders for the Simei and Toa Payoh sites have been awarded.“Taking into account changes in market conditions since November 2007, and to allow interested developers more time to evaluate the sites offered for sale, the tender for the Bedok site is now being scheduled for launch in the last quarter of 2008,” said HDB yesterday.For the resale flat market, PropNex CEO Mohamed Ismail predicted that overall this year, market prices would see 15 per cent growth.And he expects to see strong demand continue into next year, “mainly because of the time lag to develop the Build-to-Order (BTO) and DBSS flats, coupled with stronger demands from Permanent Residents (PR) due to higher rental cost”.Even so, he puts next year’s HDB price increase at 6 to 8 per cent — almost half that of this year’s — citing economic uncertainties and a reduction in the Cash-Over-Valuation that HDB buyers are willing to fork out.For now, demand should continue to be fuelled not just by the existing domestic market, but also new PRs and citizens: For the first half of this year, there were a record 34,800 new PRs and 9,600 new citizens, compared to 28,500 and 7,300 for the same period last year.With two integrated resorts up in the next two years, foreign middle-management employees are also expected to put themselves up in HDB flats.Singaporeans, meanwhile, will continue to need a place to live in, economic downturn or not. “Market uncertainty will not stop me from buying if I really need a flat,” said Mr Mark Chong, 29, an international assignment consultant, who thinks resale flats offer a better choice of location than new flats.Still, new HDB flats coming on stream should take some demand away from the resale market, noted ERA Asia Pacific’s assistant vice-president, Mr Eugene Lim.HDB has, to date, launched about 5,000 of the planned supply of 8,400 BTO flats for this year. Subject to demand, HDB plans to offer another 3,400 new flats under the BTO system in the remaining months, in towns such as Punggol, Sengkang and Yishun

buy call option & put option traded in SGX. I buy Gold ETF from SGX and Gold Cert from UOB. I buy shares too; busy picking Reits now for their high yield. Some Reits yied 13%, even if yield crash by 50% I still collect 6%. I classfied them as Junk bond without expiry date. Will start to collect blue chip if stock correct another 5-10%, but prefer buying The Sail if given an good entry point

think it is similar to 96-98 situation. Private prop dips after Asian Crisis outbreak. HDB prices remains firm. After jobs losses come, HDB prices also come off.I guess this time round, banks will be more 'ruthless' in credit collection/enforcement if they got the 1st charge over CPF. Unlike during Asian Crisis, bankrupt the borrowers , money still go back to CPF

It is fitting that the first institutions to be formally nationalised in this crisis
were not banks in the traditional sense, but institutions (Fannie and Freddie,
AIG), which were supposed to play only a supporting role in the financial
system.
Formally, the AIG operation is composed of two separate elements: the Federal
Reserve of New York has been “authorized to lend” AIG up to US$ 85 billion.
At the same time, however, the US Treasury is taking control of AIG, of which it
will own 80%, thereby immediately changing its management. The Federal
Reserve is thus providing financing to the US government. The punitive terms
(850 bps above LIBOR) agreed for the loan to AIG are irrelevant as any interest
payments would merely go from the left to the right hand pocket of the
government

CapitaLand and Keppel Land are now trading around 1.2 times price-to-book value (P/B) and City Developments (CDL) is trading at 1.7-times P/B

sometimes i feel that we are worms.when THE FARMER plants an apple plantation, we wait for apple to grow......when apple is red & juicy we hide inside and feast on.and when harvest time, we need to get out real fast and wait for the next planting season.........and for those who still eating in the apple or ate too much cannot move fast, will be send to the market

It expects office vacancy rates to hit a high of 16.5 per cent in 2010 - up from an islandwide vacancy of about 2 per cent currently - as firms' expansion plans are hit by the global financial turbulence.Office rentals are also predicted to peak earlier than expected this year, and fall 50 per cent by 2011, said research analyst Shirley Wong, who has downgraded the Singapore office trusts sector to underweight.After her report was released, office trusts CapitaCommercial Trust (CCT) and Suntec Reit saw large drops in their unit prices that put them among the worst-performing property stocks yesterday. Property counters fell across the board as the wider stock market faltered.CCT fell 17 cents to its lowest level in almost four years, while Wing Tai and Keppel Land each dropped more than 6 per cent to three-year lows.

Banks are all abt confidence. Because they borrow short (FDs) n lend long (mortgages). Cannot withstand bank runs, even if it is fake.Same thing abt economy. If everyone think slowdown n pull back on purchases/investments, the economy will slow

Property investment in some countries are a no-brainer way to get rich if timing is correct.HK, Macau, SG are the best place for property invesment. All 3 countries are flooded with people and every inch of land is more expensive than gold

Referring to 'normal' property for most people ie residential.This not dominated by global players (as in stocks), business cycle as much. Ordinary people look at wage (growth and job stability), price of property and cost (interest). So far fundamentally these are all OK (esp for HDB - this is real people or owner occupier).SG different to most markets as private end is very much expat/investment/rental end, and more sensitive business cycle/uncertainty

The USA passport allows visa-free entry to about 125 countries where-as Sg passport is about 115 or so . I have no sons so no need to consider National Service issue right now

US budget in deficit, uses tax receipts to pay debt and finance wars. Nothing left for education, infrastructure etc etc. nowhere left for the USD to run, it's going to go down down down... converted my USD to SGD last week at 1.43xx and it's now trading at 1.41xx

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac also can consider.They are 90 cent now

Mr Oei bought in on the upswing and landed his parcel for US$1.80. By the close of trading they were more than double that - US$3.75. He had looked hard at the unfolding AIG crisis and calculated that the firm was just too big and important to be allowed to fail

learn how to use money, and not get a job.. and that's why i could never get a job..

I think "as safe as houses" is correct. Hard to lose everything unlike stocks (tho of course, need to have holding power). Sure, you can make more from stocks if you are an excellent stock picker, but 99..9% of people not.Given it is likely safest, then using leverage on this OK. Banks likely have realised this so generally allow lots of leveraging (tho taken to extreme in US/UK, hence suffering). Also, property much easier to have positive carry than stocks (ie income more than cover interest cost). Once you have this positive carry, investment becomes pretty safe.Coz of this, this is why 95% of my attention has always been in property

The biggest issue with the "bailout" package has always been that no one could explain what the true problems with the financial sector are, nor could Paulson explain how the bailout would solve the problems. After hearing more and more about how its not the mortgages that are the financial industry problem, but the issue of credit default swaps and collateralized debt obligations, which relate to the mortgages, I am feeling more and more that the swaps and the CDOs were nothing more than the largest pyramid scheme the world has ever seen. The swaps apparently represented insurance contracts, where the purchaser of the swap, bought the right to receive an income stream (a "PMI type of insurance"), but, required that investor to pay out on the "policy" if a loan or package of loans or package of CDOs went into default. The CDOs were again merely sales of income streams, backed by many different mortgages (and possibly other types of collateralized loans). It seems that Wall Street merely packaged the loans, and used them to borrow money from investors, promising that if they did not pay back the money, the investor could then seek to recover against the collateral. Wall Street could then re-sell the collateralized loans to a third party! Same thing with the swaps. Wall Street underwrote various types of loan insurance (without being licensed to do so, and apparently, without the requisite knowledge to be able to do so in a proper manner), then sold the income stream from these insurance policies to unsuspecting investors! Instead of giving all this money to these banks (and AIG) in order to prop up their outsized obligations that they never had the ability to cover, we should probably be throwing the lot of them in jail!

We're throwing good money after bad, and throwing it at the very people who should be allowed to fail, come what may. The taxpayers need to wake up. The mortgage lending "foundation" that has been holding up the entire system is crumbling, and in response the government decides to fix the roof. Yes we have been had. None of this bailout money is going to fix the root causes. It is going to help the same entities that set up this pyramid scheme to begin with. Unless we get a grip and stop the reckless dispensation of consumer credit and the high debt loads that come with it, the entire US financial system is destined to fail. We are acting as if the only way to cure alcoholism is to buy the drunkard more booze.

Usually property prices lag stock market rises & falls by 2-3 quarters as property is much more illiquid & larger-ticket than equity

I have a colleague who confided in me yesterday that she sold her semi-detached in a very good location in April and is now renting a place for 4.5k. She is expecting to pick it up again when prices go down substantially. I gathered she finally had the courage to tell me only yesterday because looking at the unfolding financial crisis her confidence increased that prices are indeed going to fall substantially soon. Her decision to sell a freehold semi-detached which never went up as much as prime condos did must be based on a large extent to the memory of the previous bear run. She must be expecting another 30-40% fall in landed property prices. My gut feel is that she is going to end up sorely dissapointed and will end up buying a intemediate terrace rather than in a semi-detached when she finally decides to reenter the market. Past memory can play out many people. They will learn when the time comes

Sometimes I wonder if the older folks ever live thru 90s boom and internet boom or not??? the signs are almost identical...yet people can think the party can go on forever

Conclusion - real estate is one of the more feasible investment option. Timing and location most important. But timing can wrong, more important is location. In SG, everything is improving. More MRT lines, newer EURO 5 buses, Won't be wrong to put your bet here

I bet you bought your ppty around 2004 after SARS.I bought 2 properties right after SARS and price have double. My tennant threat me like daddy as I rent the units to them at very low rental. Even at that low rental I am getting 8% what I have paid the ppty for.I do not think SG ppty have any chance to go back to SARS level which is around $250-$350 psf in the outer core area. Simply because the building cost is more than $350 psf

Now the Fed itself is increasing borrrowing to finance its bailouts. The US is going bankrupt, and the USD may become toilet paper faster than i thought. Saw the need to lighten my USD cash and converted a chunk to SGD today. Singapore banks are flush with cash as investors seek safe havens, pushing SOR below 1% while US LIBOR stays above 3%. SGD should be appreciating but i think MAS is keeping it relatively weak to support the economy

The next thing you should very seriously think about is whether crisis leads to opportunity, in ways that go well beyond a simple strategy of only buying tangible assets. John Paulson saw the crisis that was coming in subprime mortgages, researched and educated himself on this area (which had not been his field of expertise), and he turned the crisis into a $3-$4 billion personal payday in 2007. If you're not a hedge fund manager like Paulson, you may not have the tools that he used to turn a market crisis into personal billions. That’s OK, because Paulson didn’t start with the tools either. He started with educating himself, learning about a new area, until he came up with a novel way to profit from disaster. A method that wasn’t in the financial textbooks, and that he didn’t find by reading a financial columnist in the paper. You have more tools than you may think, some of which may surprise you. Tools which can give you the opportunity to turn financial disaster into personal net worth. There are ways you can use those tools to turn the destruction of the currency into perhaps the greatest real wealth-building opportunity of your life, on a long-term and tax-advantaged basis. But, if you want this to happen --you will need to start with learning. You are going to have to educate yourself, and work to not just understand, but to master some of the financial forces and methods in play here. You will have to learn how to turn the destruction of paper wealth into real wealth. With Turning Inflation Into Wealth being the first key step. My best wishes to you for turning this challenge into an extraordinary personal opportunity

Good examples of tangible assets include gold, silver, commodities, real estate, farmland and energy.

Sept. 17 (Bloomberg) -- American International Group Inc. fell 30 percent on speculation the government's takeover will ultimately wipe out shareholders. AIG dropped $1.14 to $2.61 at 9:39 a.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading. The U.S. plan to save the New York- based company, the nation's largest insurer by assets, may give the government an 80 percent stake in return for an $85 billion loan, and dividends may be halted to common and preferred stockholders. They're already reeling from a 94 percent drop in the common shares this year. The ``punitive'' interest rate on the two-year loan ``makes it extremely clear that this is not a subsidy extended to keep the company afloat but rather a stranglehold that makes AIG unviable while ensuring that its obligations will be met,'' said Marco Annunziata, an analyst at UniCredit SpA, in a note to clients. ``This is to all extents and purposes a controlled bankruptcy.

irrelevant for investors. If price is low n can hold forever.Great Depression only lasted 3 yrs. Normalised in 5 yr. Back to 'good ole days' in 10 yrs. from 1929

The Crosby building ( where SingPost ) at Robinson Road had been sold off by Lehmen Brothers few months ago. They made a lots but all sunk into US lost.The two to be concern were the joint ventures with Chip Eng Seng :(1) at the West Coast Walk, The Parc Condo. If you still remember it was launched last year in Aug at the peak and when the subprime started to bite and stock market fell sharply for the first time. (2) The other one is CityVista Residences at Pek Hay Road, only half sold.Can Chip Eng Seng sustained the development of the two big developments by themselves ?

Just like the Asian Crisis, these times will mainly affect people overloaded with debt-financing assets. General public living in HDB flats only worry abt their jobs

want to make sure do this cycle right. Last cycle catch half, missed the other half, no experience.This round, sure must catch both sides right.Seriously learning from Lord Veru.Work till official retirement age is scary.Baby see uncle/auntie in Singapore still working as cleaner at 60-70 make Baby very sad, and Baby learned hard on this.Baby lazy, prefer sleeping and play than working

Baby prefer buy stock than property in the next 1 year.Referring to SGP, Stock had gone down a lot, property still holding on peak price.Baby has been learning to be patience, awaiting to buy stock only when STI drop to 2000.US stocks attractive but very volatile, patience is important. Baby wish to buy Citi and ML when they ever goes to $10 Then wait long long for them to go up to $60-$100 again

Some developers want GFA incentives restoredWITH profit margins already looking slimmer these days, some developers have decided to appeal to the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) to reinstate GFA (gross floor area) incentives for providing planter boxes and bay windows in condominiums.'URA checks on some completed developments had shown that on average, only about 10 per cent of the approved planter boxes within residential units were used for planting.' However, while sources say this is unlikely, an extension of the deadline for the approval of projects based on the old planning guidelines on planter boxes and bay windows may be given.In July, the URA announced that from Oct 7, bay windows and planter boxes, which can contribute up to around 5 per cent of a condominium's saleable area, will no longer be exempt from GFA calculations.Until now, developers were nevertheless able to charge home buyers for this extra GFA. But most developers do not see the GFA exemption as an incentive. City Developments group general manager Chia Ngiang Hong explained that it is common practice for developers to price in the exemption of GFA for planter boxes and bay windows when calculating the residual land value, especially for public tenders of state land. 'With the GFA exemption, most developers would have been able to allow for a wider margin,' he added.It is understood that developers were not consulted before the change in the planning guidelines on planter boxes and bay windows was revised, with many of them taken by surprise.That developers who bid for and were awarded land parcels based on prices that took into account the GFA incentive should now feel they could have overpaid, is likely to be a sore point. Still, design of future condominiums is also an issue.The guidelines on bay windows and planter boxes were first introduced in 1989 and 1993 respectively, ostensibly to encourage interesting designs for condominiums.

Say if 2 year rolling averages, with q8 latest.Rolling averages smooths out volatility and makes graph smoother.Q1, Q2....Q8.100,100,110,110,120,120,130,130 (actual price index at quarter).URA if straight average (or if each quarter given equal weight or 1/8) give 115.i.e. URA result gives index 15 below current transactions (or off over 10%).ps This result is also a bit like dollar cost averaging...However, since most recent transactions are more relevance to current deals you give more weighting, e.g100 (0.25/8), 100 (0.5/8), 110 (.75/8), 110 (.75/8), 120 (1.25/8), 120 (1.25/8), 130 (1.5/8), 130 (1.75/8).This gives 120.3125, a bit closer to latest transactions.Obviously, if you give 0 weighting to earlier, and 100% to last, you get 130.So end result is how much weighting you give..In my opinion, I think index is approx 5 quarters behind (based on peak in March/April 2007, URA index only fell 3Q2008). Hence if prices pick up 4Q, may not show til over 1 year later. Finally, even on latest transaction figure, there is a delay in lodging S&P of almost 2 months (ie prices may have fallen 10% in Oct vs Sep, but won't show for a few months).Since no esteemed person in this forum has given the answer to weighting, I suspect actual weighting not given (bit like SGD $NEER).For statisticians/planning, smoothing is justified. However, if you are planning to buy at a particular point, this become irrelevant as last price most important (you cannot dollar cost average a house purchase).All this is irrelevant when it comes to buying/selling now. Hence rely on agents, mortgage broker etc to give you idea of current market.

Anyway, job cuts are still ongoing in USA. Thats caused slowing consumer spending. This is killing China & North Asian exports industry. Li&Fung just annc job cuts and restructuring

Said before, people need to get rid of bullish conditioning to survive the bear mkt.Bullish conditioning would require buying and averging down. Margin up to buy more. Looking for bottoms. Thats what killed most people. not the big declines/crashes

Real physical property market hit peak in March 2007 if you talk about when best to sell. Stocks hit peak I think in Oct/Nov 2007.Now real physical market, maybe you can get 30-50% off if you happen to find real distressed seller. This is within days of margin call as stocks crashed recently. It's not really stocks that led to fall, but credit crunch which has affected everything almost simultaneously.Now stocks have recovered slightly recently, does this mean property will also recovery slightly a few months down the road ?? Some argue bottom may have been hit in stocks

URA has a weighted rolling average system, so takes transacted pricing going back 1, maybe 2 years ago. Hence totally unreliable when market moves

I initially thought that this financial crisis will somewhat have an indirect effect on SG. But now when my friends have become distressed sellers, i suddenly feel it so much closer. (another is facing imminent TOP of a condo after losing alot in shares)yes its surely willing buyer willing serller, but within a year banks are only willing to loan 80% of 1.1m instead of 80% of 1.5m - even if my friend sells it at 1.3m, the new buyer will have to cough up over 600k in cash/cpf.

also got a lot of examples of agents advertising super low price when got no such unit. example: got buyer who wants to pay $1900 psf but seller only will sell for $2k....buyer gets friend to advertise at $1800 psf for same building but no such unit. then buyer agents gets seller to drop price to match...seen 3 times in last 2 weeks only.

Just rent if property still got equity.Cut lost if property in negative equity. Loss can get bigger & bigger

Now must invest in "relative term".Must not compare property with property only. Must compare property with equity, forex etc.I think buying AUD, some shares in SGX, Gold may be better than Carribean.

I too was initially suckered by the so-called de-coupling theory. For the URAs figures.... My friend in banking told me it is fake.... If URA shows the real figures.... It will crash the property market immediately

an amateur economist could summarizeand simplify the Chinese economy as 39-37-37: anastonishingly large 39% of the GDP is capital spending,37% is internal consumption, and an amount equal to37% of GDP is exported. (These numbers do not sum to100 as we are not using exports net of imports becausewe are concerned with the vulnerability of total exportsto a weak global economy.) The U.S., in comparison, is19-70-13, disturbingly on the other side of normal; 70%consumption compared with 57% in both Germany andJapan, for example, and nearly twice that in China. China’smix is of course an utterly unprecedented one, and comeswith great advantages in booming times. Now, however,we might ask: how do you stimulate the building of a newsteel mill when rows of mills are sitting empty? How doyou increase exports into a global economy that is not justslowing, but is unexpectedly very weak? And are theygood enough at stimulating local consumption to have animpact on such a small percentage of GDP in the face ofa negative wealth effect from declining stock and housingprices in their local market?Simple old “Econ 101” thinking would suggest that theircapital goods sector will have a bigger drop than the restof the economy, and that export growth rates might slowfrom very large to even nil or worse

govt here must focus on local consumption to compensate for decline in exports and foreign capital investment in next 2 years. unfortunately, private consumption is only 40+% of GDP and government consumption only 12+% of GDP, so will need large stimulus to compensate for major potential declines in other areas that government cannot do much about.

I learnt hard way about Buffet. Exactly 1 year ago, he exited PetroChina after gaining something like 700% in a few years.PetroChina continued to climb, and buffet said perhaps he sold too early. So I went in thinking I could be smarter than him....PetroChina has since dropped 80% fm peak. He managed to make people like me think he was wrong by exiting too early while smiling all the way to the bank. Hence, ignore his actions at your peril !!!

Talking about knowledge, the last 10 years the number of polytechnics and university graduates had been mass produced like commodities..... 20-30years ago, entry into university are only top brilliant, now is like everywhere.....nowadays even university need to have fancy advertisements to compete against each others...too many vacancies........last time, when A level results out, there is only a small standard notice on the newspaper that university is open to application....what a huge difference

Singapore this month cut its economic growth forecast for 2008 to 3.0 percent from between 4.0 and 5.0 percent after the economy slipped into a technical recession, described as two consecutive quarters of negative growth.Real gross domestic product (GDP) declined by 6.3 percent in the third quarter after contracting 5.7 percent in the previous quarter, according to preliminary government data.The MAS said Singapore's financial sector will suffer from a direct impact, while weakening consumer sentiment will affect retail trade and the property market.Other segments of the econonomy like manufacturing and tourism will suffer from falling external demand, it said

STI bottomed at about 800 during the Asian financial crisis.But GDP has grown 76% since from 1998 (S$138b) to 2007 ($243b).

Riz Haven in Pasir Ris just slash the price of the new project by 25-30%. The new selling price are now $6xx psf. (Previous selling price around $850 psf)

Las Vegas Sands' share price has fallen some 95 per cent from a year ago. On Thursday, it was US$8.21, down from the high of US$148.76 on Oct 29 2007

GP battery NAV more than $2 but trading at $0.50

It's better to miss out no than regret later
By R S


SINGAPORE - Fear manifests itself in the stock market in two and only two ways. First is fear of losing money, which emerges when prices are plummeting and all mayhem is breaking loose, as was the case for most of last month. This stage is characterised by plenty of hand-wringing as investors agonise over whether to sell, or cut losses, or pay up their margin calls or, in the case of die-hard believers, to try and ride out the plunges and hope that one day they'll be in the black again.
Second is fear of losing the chance to make money, which occurs when a sudden rebound occurs and the majority are caught unprepared. The hand-wringing is then complemented by kicking oneself - sometimes with both feet - for not having had the courage to have bought earlier.
Since the Straits Times Index has now bounced almost 20 per cent from its intraday low of 1,500 a couple of weeks ago, there must be plenty of self-inflicted kicking going on, which together with equal doses of hand-wringing, is followed by the inevitable, gnawing question: should I take the plunge or risk being left out?
The mistake investors make when fear of losing out takes hold is to rely on most recent memory, say the 2-3 weeks just passed, and extrapolate this to the next most immediate period. It doesn't work that way at all - in this environment, patience is a virtue because it's much wiser to miss out on the best if it helps you avoid the worst.
First, volatility is still way too high, with 5-10 per cent intraday swings now commonplace. This is one legacy of the Greenspan/Bernanke/Bush administration, which failed to detect the widening fissures in the US property and banking markets and kept marvelling at just how strong its economy and banking system were even when the cracks appeared.
Second is that the worst of the economic crunch has yet to be seen. US unemployment can rise as high as 8 per cent - unheard of in the modern era - and nobody knows with even the slightest clarity when things will improve.
As research outfit Ideaglobal said over the weeked when asking whether it's time to call a recession: 'old wisdom has it that if it looks like a duck and quacks like a duck, chances are it's a duck'.
Third is the problem of how to shake off the present recession and inevitable depression to follow. There is no guarantee that the standard policy responses of cutting interest rates to zero to try and engineer positive inflation and generous tax cuts to stoke consumer spending and demand will work - Japan has tried everything but has been in mired in a deflatioanry environment for almost 20 years with nothing seeming to work.
Interestingly, Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke six years ago delivered a speech that dealt with deflation, in which he said prevention is better than cure because of the difficulties associated with the cure. It's also worth noting that he said there was no imminent threat of deflation at the time because the US economy was so strong and the banking system was so robust and well-regulated. It'll certainly be interesting to see if he lives up to his preferred prescription at that time of resorting to the printing press and flooding the market with US dollars to combat deflation. In the worst-case scenario, all he may be doing is following in the footsteps of his predecessor Alan Greenspan - as one commentator noted about the hoped-for bailouts: 'let's start another cycle of easy credit, leading to leverage, no regulation, opaque self-serving instruments of mass financial destruction, leading to another bubble, leads fat cats to whine, brings a federal bailout and lets the cycle repeat itself'.
As for the local market, its fortunes will continue to be dictated by expectations of how Wall Street might perform later each day - Friday's bounce in the Straits Times Index despite a huge US loss on Thursday confirms that programme trades buy stocks here first before the US.
However Wall Street's rise on Friday was most likely due to short-covering after a 10 per cent collapse on Wednesday and Thursday and is very likely to fizzle out soon.
The upshot of all this is that patience is a virtue and that it's better to miss out now than regret being hasty later.

if stocks are attractive and you
don’t buy and they run away, you don’t just look like an
idiot, you are an idiot.

Hawker Hunter

The Hawker Hunter weighs 10,000kg , has a length of 14m and a width of 10.35 m. It has a maximum speed of 1300km/hr and is supersonic in a shallow dive.

From 'Those that Dared'
Hello Dave and team, Just a quick note to say how exhilarating it was to take my first 'Hunter Flight'. Nothing can prepare you for the feeling of the G forces building and the sheer thrill of speeding over the water and beach-scape while flying at low-level. Dave made the whole process feel completely safe due to his vast experience and obvious flying skills. It was also marvelous to spend a few hours with a group of people who have such a passion for what they do and the professional way they imparted something of the history of the Hunter. That helped to make the whole experience a totally enjoyable one. I will be highly recommending the flight to anyone who is interested in doing something special for once in their lives. Many thanks to all involved. Best Regards, Garry Wilbraham.
Garry - May 30th 2006
Know and use all the capabilities in your airplane. If you don't, sooner or later, some guy who does use them all will kick your ass.
Lieutenant Dave 'Preacher'Pace, USN - Nov 12th 2005
The important thing in aeroplanes is that they shall be speedy.
Baron Manfred von Richthofen - Nov 12th 2005
Beware the lessons of a fighter pilot who would rather fly a slide rule than kick your ass!
Commander Ron 'Mugs'McKeown, USN - Nov 12th 2005
He who gets excited in fighting is sure to make mistakes.
Baron manfred von Richthofen - Nov 12th 2005
Speed is life.
Israeli Tactics Manual - Nov 12th 2005
I never went into the air thinking I would lose.
Commander Randy 'Duke'Cunningham, USN - Nov 12th 2005
You fight like you train.
Motto TOPGUN - Nov 12th 2005
An excellent weapon and luck had been on my side. To be successful the best fighter pilot needs both.
Lt. General Adolph Galland - Nov 12th 2005
It was qviet, very fast, not noisy or cold in the cockpit with an astounding rate of climb...very un-gentlemanly, should be banned
Baron Von Richtofen - Aug 24th 2005

My endorsement on this exciting aircraft was completed on this 40 minute flight.
A wonderful flight of 40 minutes was completed on February 7th.
The weather at last was superb and we completed my endorsement training practicing general handling, some aerobatics and forced landing and approaches on a long beach north of Noosa.
It was all fantastic, and I really enjoy flying this superb aircraft. The flight was completed with one approach and landing back at Sunshine Coast Airport.
With the endorsement training now completed, we are presently doing some work on the fuel indication system and if all goes to plan we hope to fly again on Friday 19th March.

"OK - my first chance to let the F-22 loose on takeoff. I was the last IOT&E ( I think this means Initial Operational Test and Eval) pilot at Edwards and it was only a few months before I was to move to Langley. The test folks were nice enough to still let me fly there occasionally, and they had a perfect mission for me. It was a single ship, no test support (control room) required, and I had my own tanker. All I had to do was takeoff and fly around for 2 hours collecting data from the MLD's (missile launch detectors). In other words it was a free sortie with a lot of gas available and I had the airspace to myself since it didn't matter what I did during the sortie, in fact more maneuvering was better to get data. Having never had a chance to really see what the jet would be like on takeoff, and since I had a tanker to keep me full of gas, I decided to do a max performance takeoff and let it go straight up to see what it would do. Edwards has that 15,000 foot runway, and an unlimited ceiling since it sits in a restricted airspace. So on taxi I asked for a max climb out to 25,000 feet, the controller said, 29,000? I said, sure that'll work. I really had no idea what I'd end up with and with my Eagle time I figured I'd be lucky to get to 29,000. So I let it go to about 570 or so which was prior to the end of the runway and started a pull, not too much g, maybe 4 or 5, and went to 90 degrees nose high. I wasn't really paying attention to the airspeed or altitude because I was really enjoying the view and the ride, it was amazing. I started to feel a little buffet and looked inside to see what the deal was, expecting that I was starting to slow down to the point where I was getting the same kind of buffet you feel as the jet slows down and a little alpha starts to build on the wings, that's how it goes in a Eagle too. Well, there's also a little buffet in the Raptor when you're about to go supersonic, and to my surprise, and I started laughing, the jet was at .99 mach and trying its best to punch through to supersonic flight, straight up, passing about 18 or 19 thousand feet or so, it began a slow deceleration as I stared in awe at the HUD mach indication and at .94 mach I realized I was at 25,000 and was going to blast way through my altitude, so I rolled and started a 4 to 5 g pull to level out, which of course didn't work and I leveled at about 31,500 feet at about 330knots (don't know why those numbers stick in my head but they do). Now for you pilots out there, you know when you pull g, especially at higher altitudes and heavy weight, it's a fairly energy depleting event. So go figure, I'm FULLY loaded with fuel at takeoff, ALL of the weapons bays were loaded, so I am in my combat configuration, in a regular line jet, no tweaks, no special modifications, no weight taken out (as in the Streak Eagle or Mig 25 flights, etc.), nothing, just a line jet any old pilot could step to and fly. So I talked to the engineers and with some quick math they guessed I could have topped out in the low 60 thousand numbers. That wasn't flying a special profile like other jets have either (Rutowski profile - misspelled?), it was just a pull to the nose straight up. This...jet...is...a...monster!!" -Marc