Friday, November 14, 2008
today's frenzy is nowhere like that in the mid 90s. To me, the main cause of today's boom is the massive rate of enbloc dislocation over a very short period of time, something we didn't have in the mid-90s. The IR factor is puny compared to the other forces at play in the mid-90s. Yes, there may be more enbloc-induced wealth this time, but the appetite for speculation was stronger last time. Once the enbloc pace slows down, I think we may not see any huge upside anymore now that we have largely surpassed the 90s' peak.