Friday, December 5, 2008
There appears to be a consensus that the economy was over-levered from households to corporations to government-sponsored entities. Leverage as measured by total debt to GDP grew from 140% 30 years ago to over 220% today. If that defines the problem then the solution should be a de-leveraging over the next thirty years. That de-leveraging will cause prices to fall dramatically as the credit supply shrinks, money supply falls and velocity slows.