Friday, December 12, 2008
BUYING HONG FOK IS LIKE BUYING A PROPERTY WHICH WAS ONCE WORTH 1.86MILLION AT THE PEAK OF THE CYCLE AND NOW HAS CRUSHED TO $160,000. WHEN IT WAS AT 1.86MILLION I WAS TELLING MYSELF, IF ONLY...................... A WAR, ANOTHER SARS, A FINANCIAL CRISIS COULD CRUSH THIS BABY SO THAT I CAN COME IN A BUY
ANOTHER REASON WHY I SAY HONG FOK IS A STEAL AT CURRENT PRICE, AMONG ALL THE LISTED PROPERTY COUNTERS HONG FOK HAS THE BIGGEST DISCOUNT TO ITS NAV OF $1.37CENTS. ABOUT 85%. YOU GO AND DO YOUR OWN MATH. GUOCOLAND NAV 2.50 SHARE PRICE $1.15, KEPLAND NAV $3.26 SHARE PRICE $2.17, HO BEE NAV $1.164 SHARE PRICE 40.5CENTS, CAPITAL LAND $3.81 SHARE PRICE $3.24, WING TAI $2.09 SHARE PRICE 76CENTS, WHEELOCK PROP. NAV $1.72 SHARE PRICE 95CENTS. SC GLOBAL NAV 97CENTS SHARE PRICE 61CENTS. THE RANGE IS BETWEEN 14%-65%. SO THINK ABOUT IT, WHY HONG FOK IS NOT SUNKIST ORANGE AT 8CENTS
I'M STILL QUEUING TO BUY HONG FOK 20CENTS, I CONSIDER HONG FOK AT THIS PRICE, IS A STEAL, RECENTLY, IF YOU CAN REMEMBER YTL CORPORATION BUYING INTO MMP REITS AT 82CENTS, ITS NAV VALUE IS $1.61 CENTS, THAT'S ABOUT 50% BELOW THE PRICE OF ITS NAV. NOW I'M BUYING HONG FOK AT 85% BELOW ITS NAV OF $1.37. HOW, GOOD OR NOT? YOU DECIDE. HONG FOK, LIKE I SAID OWNS THE CONCOURSE, I DON'T KNOW HOW MUCH THEY PAY FOR THIS PIECE OF LAND. MUST BE DIRT CHEAP AND BESIDES THE CONCOURSE, THEY ALSO OWN THE INTERNATIONAL BUILDING IN ORCHARD ROAD. WHICH IS FREEHOLD. AND AT WHAT PRICE DID THEY PAY FOR THIS LAND? YES, DIRT CHEAP AGAIN
Thursday, December 11, 2008
Tuesday, December 9, 2008
Sunday, December 7, 2008
Friday, December 5, 2008
People used to boast about hot stocks they owned. Now they crow about how much of their money is in cash. Those holding cash have been richly rewarded with no losses and opportunities to buy assets (condos and equities) at huge discounts.
As prices continue to decline, those that moved too quickly to buy at the bottom are seen as fools. Consider the massive losses of the sovereign wealth funds, Bank of America
12/05/2008BAC 14.17, -0.17, -1.2%) and Countrywide, and even Warren Buffett's latest foray into General Electric GE 17.14, -0.41, -2.3%) and Goldman Sachs
GS 67.27, -0.26, -0.4%) . Investors, convinced that prices will continue to decline, sit with their liquid resources on the sidelines. As that investment demand takes a holiday, prices will decline further
As prices continue to decline, those that moved too quickly to buy at the bottom are seen as fools. Consider the massive losses of the sovereign wealth funds, Bank of America
12/05/2008BAC 14.17, -0.17, -1.2%) and Countrywide, and even Warren Buffett's latest foray into General Electric GE 17.14, -0.41, -2.3%) and Goldman Sachs
GS 67.27, -0.26, -0.4%) . Investors, convinced that prices will continue to decline, sit with their liquid resources on the sidelines. As that investment demand takes a holiday, prices will decline further
The policy agenda currently in vogue is to maintain the leverage and the asset prices by shifting all that debt from the private sector to the public. Why are we doing this? Because the near-term political heat from a deep recession and re-pricing of assets is more than any of our leaders can handle. Eventually that massive intervention and concomitant increase in the money supply will come with a hefty price tag
There appears to be a consensus that the economy was over-levered from households to corporations to government-sponsored entities. Leverage as measured by total debt to GDP grew from 140% 30 years ago to over 220% today. If that defines the problem then the solution should be a de-leveraging over the next thirty years. That de-leveraging will cause prices to fall dramatically as the credit supply shrinks, money supply falls and velocity slows.
Thursday, December 4, 2008
Wednesday, December 3, 2008
Tuesday, December 2, 2008
The fallout has been felt most profoundly in the local property market where soaring prices last year attracted hordes of speculators snapping up condos in the hope of making a quick profit. This sudden reversal has prompted analysts to raise concerns over possible systemic risks posed to banks from the downward spiral in property prices, given their big exposure to real estate loans. Their biggest worry is focused on the record 14,811 private properties sold by developers to homebuyers last year. Many of these flats were sold under a 'deferred payment scheme', introduced 10 years ago during the Asian financial crisis to help developers offload unsold properties and which was scrapped only in October last year. This scheme enabled a homebuyer to pay only the stamp duty and 10 per cent of the purchase price upfront. The rest is paid only when the flat is given its temporary occupation licence (TOP
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